The Idea.
So for a few seasons now, the teams that have been promoted from the Championship into the Premier League have been unable to avoid relegation back to the Championship in the first season. In the Premier League's history there have only been 5 seasons where all 3 newly promoted clubs have avoided relegation but for all 3 promoted clubs to go straight back down has happened now in consecutive seasons and wouldn't be surprising if it happened 3 years in a row.
At the bottom of the Premier League; after 23 games; are Southampton, Ipswich, Wolves and Leicester City. Southampton look dead and buried. If they escape relegation this season it will be one of the greatest great escapes in the Premier League era. They only have 9 points, plus a terrible goal difference of -36. In 17th places; just above the relegation zone are Wolves on 19 points. Leicester City and Ipswich sit in 18th and 19th on 17 and 16 points.
Above these 4 struggling teams are Everton and West Ham United, both on 26 points. 7 points ahead and a much, much better goal difference, it is going to be hard for any of these teams to catch up with the pack. This makes it very likely for the 3 newly promoted teams to go straight back down.
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Why is This Becoming the Norm?
We have seen it time and time again in the last 20 years or so. To be successful you need to spend a lot of money. There's a bit of a pattern, the more money a team spends, the more they will win. It is not exactly an accurate statement. I don't mean the Premier League standings at the end of every season shows who spent the most money in order. Some teams get their recruitment and business done better than others. Some teams buy superstars in every position, and some teams are able to find undiscovered gems. Generally, if you splash a bit of cash there's a half decent chance you'll improve your position in the Premier League.
If you are able to make yourself into an established Premier League team you can absolutely reap the rewards. Look at teams who have been promoted into the Premier League fairly recently at have stayed a few years. I'm talking about teams like Fulham, Brighton, Brentford or Nottingham Forest. Now they have been in the Premier League for a few seasons they are able to generate a greater revenue than if they were in the Championship. This comes with TV revenue, sponsorship deals and the prize money at the end of each season. These are just 4 team examples.
The Gap
The other aspect is what teams are allowed to spend in the Premier League compared to in the Championship or even League 1. We'll bring League 1 into this for the sake of Ipswich Town. Ipswich Town have had an amazing 2 seasons, obtaining back to back promotions from League 1 to the Premier League. While in League 1 the Tractor Boys would have only been permitted to spend 60% of their revenue earned that season. Down in League 1 & 2, the rules are slightly different. In the Premier League, teams are only allowed to spend £105 million over three year. Whereas, in League 1 & 2 it is a percentage of what the club earns. In League 1 this percentage is 60% of their turnover on player related costs.
So in two season, if Ipswich wanted to spend money on a player; whether it was a new signing or a new contract for a current player; they have gone from only being able to spend 60% of their turnover to being able to spend £105 million across 3 years. That is if they stay in the Premier League for three years. While in League 1 Ipswich made £14.4 on commercial revenue, merchandise, match day and broadcasting. For the same sectors and for the same amount of time but in the Championship they made £21.8 million. A growth of around 51%. Again for this season, the number will be just north of £51 million. That's growth of 300% in two seasons. Yes, there are lots of other factors, ins and outs to consider in the business of a football club, yet you're raking in well over 200% from League 1 to the Premier League.
Not many teams do the back to back promotions. The last team to do it were Southampton, and they have been a bit of a yoyo team in the last few years. They have done a few promotions and relegations in the last few years.
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How to Change This?
With the commercial side of the Premier League becoming an absolute monster, it is leaving the Football League behind a little bit. Teams that are promoted to the Championship may get parachute payments to try help to sustain them, yet that's what it does. It sustains them. It doesn't really help guarantee that they will get promoted again. For example, the likes of Luton Town. They are probably the smallest club to ever be promoted into the Premier League. They only had one season and were relegated back into the Championship. I think it's a great story for English football, yet i don't see Luton getting promoted back to the Premier League any time soon. They currently sit 23rd in the Championship with a decent sized chance they will be in League 1 next season.
There are a few teams that become yoyo teams for 5 or so seasons. At the moment it's teams like Leicester City, Sheffield United and Burnley. They get promoted, last a season or two and go back to Championship football. I think for a few other teams such as Southampton and the mighty Leeds United, their squads are too good for the Championship but just not good enough to compete in the Premier League. Looking at the teams that are likely to push for promotion this season: Leeds United, Sheffield United, Burnley and Sunderland. Are those teams better than the teams currently towards the bottom end of the Premier League: Everton, Spurs, West Ham or Crystal Palace?
I think with the current financial fair play rules and the sustainability of the current Premier League teams, this is going to happen for a while. 3 teams come up and the same 3 go straight back down. The teams in the Championship cannot financially compete with the established Premier League sides, even if they are lower half teams. It's going to become a huge spectacle when a team finally beats relegation because it is becoming less and less common to stay up. Something needs to change where Championship clubs are able to spend the amounts closer to what Premier League teams are allowed to spend to allow the gap to close a bit more.
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